Once they are selected, the plan was to include 21 SNP candidates in this research as potentially “winnable” having considered the existing data. But this might need a bit of a rethink and a significant upgrade on the basis of this poll. Remember that the SNP currently only has 6 Westminster MPs.
New MORI Scottish general election poll has SNP on 52% and Labour on 23% – just four Lab MPs would survive, SNP would have 54.
— George Eaton (@georgeeaton) October 30, 2014
In case you’re thinking that this might be a rogue poll, it might be of course. It was conducted between 22 and 29 October with the news on 24 October that Johann Lamont was to resign as leader of the Scottish Labour Party just breaking and being assessed. But Ipsos MORI have a good record…
At the Holyrood election in May 2011 @IpsosMORI was the most accurate pollster. All came top = on the IndyRef
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2014
Note that with 1026 participants the margin of error on this poll is only 3%, so clearly something very significant is happening in Scottish politics right now.
