Even with hundreds of candidates from the major parties still to be selected, it is possible to predict with some certainty that there will be a record number of black and minority ethnic MPs elected at the UK 2015 General Election.
Some of the statistics on the number of MPs from a minority ethnic background are widely known and there have been a number of informative reports in the last few months (for instance, The Guardian, 31 July 2014) on the number of BME (Black and Minority Ethnic) candidates standing in next year’s election. Below are a few of the key statistics:
- There are currently 27 BME MPs in the House of Commons (following the resignation of Marsha Singh in Bradford West and Seema Malhotra’s by-election victory in Feltham & Heston the number remains the same as elected in 2010); this was an increase from 15 BME MPs following the 2005 General Election; none are currently standing down at the next election
- 4.6% of the 2010 intake of MPs had a BME background compared to 2% of the 1997 intake
- Labour has 16 BME MPs, the Conservatives have 11 MPs and the Liberal Democrats do not have a single BME MP.
- It is estimated that over 120 candidates from a BME background fought in the 2010 General Election from the three major parties.
With the three main parties having selected almost exactly two-thirds (65% or around 1230) of their candidates for the General Election, current BME PPCs – which have been identified – standing for the parties are:
- Labour – 28 new candidates plus 16 re-standing MPs = 44 BME candidates (8% of Labour PPCs)
- Conservative – 20 new candidates plus 11 re-standing MPs = 31 candidates (7%)
- Liberal Democrats – 17 new candidates (7%)
This gives a current total (as of 3 November) of 92 BME candidates (7% of candidates) standing for the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats. 65 are new candidates. On this basis, the 120 BME candidates fielded in 2010 should be exceeded in 2015.
However, it should almost go without saying that it is not the number of candidates but the number who actually are elected to Parliament that is important. Only 23 BME candidates are standing in a potentially “winnable” seat (ie. on a party’s target list or in a retirement seat).
Of the 27 current MPs expected to re-stand, only two are potentially vulnerable – Conservative’s Paul Uppal in Wolverhampton South West (Labour’s 13th target seat) and Alok Sharma in Reading West (Labour’s 94th target seat).
The Conservatives have selected six BME candidates in winnable seats. Five are in retirement seats (Nusrat Ghani in Wealden, Ranil Jayawardena in Hampshire North East, Seema Kennedy in South Ribble, Alan Mak in Havant and Rishi Sunak in Richmond Yorkshire). South Ribble though is a Labour target seat (no.77). The sixth is Afzal Amin in Dudley North which is a potential Conservative target seat.
Labour has selected 14 BME candidates – 13 of them are standing in target seats and one (Tulip Siddiq) in a theoretically marginal retirement seat (Hampstead & Kilburn). The BME candidates in Labour target seats (all of whom are now selected) are as follows:
- Clive Lewis (Norwich South, no.6), Imran Hussain (Bradford East, no.10), Amina Lone (Morecambe & Lunesdale, no.14), Dr Purna Sen (Brighton Pavilion, no.19), Dawn Butler (Brent Central, no.23), Sarah Owen (Hastings & Rye, no.30), Uma Kumaran (Harrow East, no.52), Dr Amanjit Jhund (Dunbartonshire East, no.35), Dr Rupa Huq (Ealing Central & Acton, no.56), Azhar Ali (Pendle, no.57), Jessica Asato (Norwich North, no.67), Rebecca Blake (Redditch, no.100) and Thangam Debbonaire (Bristol West, no.105).
The Liberal Democrats are so far fielding three BME candidates in key seats – Layla Moran in Oxford West & Abingdon, Maajid Nawaz in Hampstead & Kilburn and Ibrahim Taguri hoping to replace the retiring Sarah Teather in Brent Central.
It is possible to say with some certainty that there will be an increase in the number of BME MPs after the next election whatever the actual result. This is courtesy of the Conservative BME candidates so far selected in safe constituencies where the current MP is standing down. The number of new BME MPs will then rise depending upon how many seats Labour wins.
This is with 13 Conservative and Labour retirement seats, as of today, still to select a candidate, plus all of the SNP candidates and some UKIP target seats.
Taking all the current polling data into account, some scenarios relevant to particular seats and the developing political outlook in Scotland, it looks to me as if there will be around 40 British black and minority ethnic MPs after the next election and perhaps more. So this will represent some progress, but will still fall far short of the number needed to more accurately reflect the diversity of the UK population (14% non-white according to the 2011 census).
One last observation – a few weeks ago an interesting article on LabourList posed the question, “Does Labour have a problem with black men?”, 2 September 2014). Of the 23 BME candidates selected so far standing in winnable seats, ten are men. But only four are Labour men.
